THE OUTFLOW OF UKRAINIAN WORKERS IS UNLIKELY

WBJ: Are workers from Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia still looking at the Polish labor market with interest?

Evgenij Kirichenko: Yes, the Polish labor market is still attractive for workers from Ukraine. As a work agency, we have not had such a busy January since the pandemic’s beginning. Just in the first weeks of 2022, we have observed an approx. 40% increase in recruitment compared to the same period of the previous year. It is difficult to say whether the threat from Russia is the decisive factor, but rather the important one.

We expect that in the coming months there may be another wave of employees from Ukraine looking for employment in Poland. Considering how the situation in Ukraine might develop, we’re set to open two additional offices in Odessa and Kharkiv in early February. They are to support the recruitment process in the six eastern and southern regions of Ukraine.

And what about those who already work in Poland? Is there a risk that our economy will lose as they will move further to Germany or the Netherlands?

As for further labor migration, according to our own research, 54.1% of Ukrainians working in Poland are interested in the opportunity to work in other EU countries. Especially in Germany (59.8%) and Scandinavia (42.5%). But on the other hand, what is most important, 43% of them are “just considering” such a possibility and only 4.2% are “already making some moves.”

This disparity between interest and concrete action takes place because the procedure for obtaining a German work visa requires considerable effort and time. In addition, German employers often seek employees with knowledge of the German language, which is also an obstacle for many Ukrainians who have the opportunity to get a job in Poland without much effort. So in my opinion, it is now unlikely to expect a large outflow of Ukrainian workers to Germany or further. But if any other country of their interest offers loyal conditions for access to its own labor market, Poland could significantly lose Ukrainian labor, which is currently an important component of the Polish economy. And this remains a key challenge for the country. 

Do the migrant workers expect higher wages in 2022?

It’s very difficult to forecast exactly how the situation will develop. It depends on many economical and political factors, not only in Poland. Both employers and employees feel the effects of current inflation. Employers are aware of the need to raise salaries. But their other costs are rising too, mainly due to the dramatic increase in energy prices. As an employment agency, we have a big challenge to find a fair balance between the two interests.

Anyway, wages in Poland are growing gradually. From January 2022, the minimum wage increased by PLN 210 and amounts now to PLN 3,010 gross, the hourly rate grew up to PLN 19.70 gross. This results in an increase in the average rate too. And this also applies to workers from Ukraine since there is no wage discrimination in Poland. And, compared to Ukraine, wages in Poland are still attractive for migrant laborers.

But I presume that wages are not the only factor that makes your offer — to work in Poland — attractive in Ukraine?

That is true, in the case of employees from our neighbors in the east, non-wage issues are also important. Requirements for the comfort and quality of life in Poland are constantly growing. We provide our workers with the support of a bilingual coordinator and access to a hotline, we pay extra for renting apartments, we help with their integration in Poland and upskilling, and we award scholarships for gifted children of our employees. All these are important for an employee: no less important than salaries.

When it comes to the profile of employees from Ukraine looking for a job in Poland, do we have any changes here over the past years?

According to our research “The Pulse of Labor Migration,” 48.5% of migrants are men and 51.5% are women. We observe a moderate tendency to increase the share of women in the structure of economic migration — there was an increase of 3% compared to 2020.

The average age of Ukrainian labor migrants is 33-34. The age of a third of respondents (36%) is below 30 years, another 28% are 30-39-year-olds. Overall, 26.1% of the respondents are 40 or above. This data shows a stable trend where the youngest section of Ukrainian society leaves their country.

As many as 48% of all the migrants have finished technical or specialized secondary school and 28.4% hold higher education degrees. Before coming to Poland, 25% did physical work and 28% worked in the service sector, where 15% of them were employed in administration and another 10% were managers.

We are also observing a growing trend of relocating to Poland with whole families. The number of foreigners buying real estate in Poland or setting up their own businesses is growing too. They come first as blue-collar workers, integrate, and decide to start their own companies.

Are there any particular industries that may suffer from a shortage of Ukrainian workers in 2022?

There is currently a shortage of workers in almost every industry: transport and logistics, processing and trade, as well as in the hospitality sector. Last year, Gremi Personal recorded a 30% increase in recruited employees from our eastern neighbors, while the demand for them in Poland increased by as much as 90% compared to 2020.

We see a great unsatisfied demand on the market and so far there are no signs that this trend will be reversed. Conversely, if earlier every January and February were a lull period with about 300 open vacancies for our clients, today there are five times as many.

So how does Poland currently attract more workers?

According to our latest research, the three main advantages of working in Poland for Ukrainians are a higher level of wages compared to Ukraine (80.6%), a stable economic situation in Poland (27.9%), and the ability to obtain a relatively easier work visa or a temporary residence permit than in other EU countries (25.4%). The other advantages are geographical proximity (23.8%), the ease of finding a job here (21.8%), and the ease of learning a local language (21.7%).

And what about the near future? How do you assess the risk that certain factors may disrupt the involvement of Ukrainians in the Polish economy?

As for now, we are closely monitoring the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border. And the situation with Covid-19, of course. Possible sealing of the EU's external borders in case of the next wave of the pandemic may be a great challenge. In 2020, in order to meet customer needs, we were forced to quickly introduce various nonstandard solutions. We are the only company in Poland that has carried out several charter flights for our employees, and later launched permanent bus connections and quarantine centers for foreigners. We are now using the experience gained then to prepare for the possible consequences of the Omicron variant and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s actions.

Gremi Personal is a Poland-based employment agency specializing in hiring foreigners for the Polish job market. Evgenij Kirichenko is the agency’s founder and CEO.

*Update

We are not yet in a position to assess the consequences of the Russian military invasion of Ukraine. In 2014-2015, warfare activities caused an exponential increase in migration from Ukraine to Poland. According to the data of the National Bank of Poland, before 2014, the number of declarations of willingness to entrust work to a foreigner registered by Polish employers amounted to approximately 200.000 annually. In 2014 there were 390.000 such declarations, of which 370.000 for Ukrainian citizens, while in 2015 these values amounted to accordingly 780.000. and 760.000. The number of work permits also increased in a similar way.

However, the current wave of migration, the beginning of which we have observed since the 24th of February, will no longer be a labor migration, but an escape from the war. The reason for this is the much larger scale of the military invasion, which covers almost the entire territory of Ukraine. We receive many reports from our employees that ensuring the safety of their loved ones is now the most important thing for them. Due to this, but also due to the martial law and restrictions on the departure of men under military obligation from Ukraine, we expect an increase in the share of women in the migration structure.

We have been operating in a crisis mode since the 24th of February, we do not lose contact with our offices in Ukraine and we monitor the situation on an ongoing basis, including the situation on the border with Poland. We do everything we can to fulfill our obligations towards clients, employees and partners.

We are currently focusing on supporting our employees and female workers from Ukraine and ensuring the safety of their families. Likewise, we are also ready, using all our experience, to actively cooperate with the authorities and local governments in the current situation.