Tourism not to recover until 2024: analysts

In the case of economic restrictions, the so-called travel passes or passports confirming vaccination will not be enough to revive tourism, analysts Allianz Research and Euler Hermes indicate. In their opinion, the recovery will not take place until 2024 – in Europe faster than in the USA or Asia.

According to analysts, the Covid-19 pandemic could put an end to "globalized" tourism and long-term travel, forcing tourism and travel companies to change their business models.

Analysts noted that in the case of China and South Africa, herd immunity should be achieved in the second half of 2022. Along with India, particular delays in vaccination occur in the South America region.

"The delay in achieving herd immunity is due in particular to difficulties in bringing more conventional and cheaper vaccines to emerging markets. Considering that the current economic downturn started in the first quarter of 2020, it means that the global tourism and Travel-related may return to pre-crisis levels in the second half of 2022," the report reads. However, analysts stressed that the current pandemic has triggered an unprecedented economic crisis, entailing the imposition of severe restrictions such as travel bans and very strict travel restriction laws, as well as curfews that continue to affect the lives of many in rich countries with the mature economy.

"As a consequence, the likelihood of a return to rapid development in the tourism industry next year is very unlikely," they assessed.

(PAP)