War never changes. Neither Does Restoration

even before the outbreak of the war, Ukrainians constituted the largest group of economic migrants in Poland. When the Russian aggression began, almost 8.5 million Ukrainian citizens came to Poland. Now it is estimated that from 1.5 million to 2.3 million of them permanently reside in Poland, including about 950,000 classified as war refugees.  Nearly 500,000 are of working age, and most are women and children. 

Ukrainians in Poland

Since January 2023, upon arrival in Poland, Ukrainians can easily obtain a Polish PESEL number. Having this number makes it easier to obtain a residence permit if the refugee finds a job. An estimated 50-55% of refugees from Ukraine are now employed in Poland. According to data from the latest edition of the “Barometer of the Polish Labor Market”, individuals from Ukraine are already employed in almost every second Polish company, typically in lower-level positions. This year, taxes and contributions collected from their salaries are projected to contribute approximately PLN 5.5 billion to the budget. 

At the same time, on the expenditures side, Ukrainians receive various benefits: PLN 500 per month from the Family 500+ program, Family Care Capital (RKO), PLN 300 for school starter kits, family allowances (totalling PLN 2 billion) and education-related expenses (totalling PLN 2.9 billion), all amounting to a total of PLN 4.9 billion. They are satisfied and reportedly believe that their standard of living has improved significantly. This is hardly surprising, because the minimum wage in Poland is PLN 3,600 gross, and in Ukraine it is UAH 6,500, approximately PLN 846. 

Ukrainians value the security and peace found in Poland, which is understandable, considering many of them fled the conflicts in 2022 and 2014. They also clearly appreciate the Polish willingness to help and their kindness in high regard, sentiments that persist even a year after the outbreak of the war. Furthermore, they enjoy the availability of employment and a well-developed infrastructure. 

However, the question arises: Do they plan to return to their home country when the war is over? 

This is a fundamental problem that is reluctantly raised during any discussion on the reconstruction of Ukraine. The acceptance and assimilation of Ukrainians is in the interest of every country that receives immigrants, especially since it was mainly women who left during the war. Yet, I believe that 3/4 of those who left will not return to Ukraine after the war. 

Simply type the word “divorce” into Google (‘розлучення’) and it becomes evident that its usage has been on the rise in various locations worldwide since 2022, including Poland, the Czech Republic, France, Germany and beyond. In addition, many demobilised soldiers are expected to leave Ukraine after the war to reunite with their families abroad. For the moment, due to the ongoing conflict, Ukraine has imposed restrictions on men from leaving the country. 

From a demographic perspective, Ukraine has already experienced substantial losses, even if it regains all the lost territories and Russia suffers defeat. Ultimately, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has no winners, only losers. 

The Future of Ukraine

Ambitious plans to rebuild Ukraine are already under consideration by politicians. But discussions about reconstruction projects have taken precedence over those concerning human capital, a resource that cannot be so easily replenished. Tenders are set to be announced for the reconstruction, as the money will come from EU and US funds. The World Bank’s estimation places reconstruction costs at that $411 billion. This amount, of course, increases with each Russian attack.

For comparison, Ukraine’s GDP in 2019, before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, had reached as much as $153.9 billion. This means that the cumulative value of the country’s goods and services is decidedly lower than the funds needed to rebuild the country following the extensive devastation caused by the Russian invasion. The impact of this devastation is substantial; in 2022 alone, the economy shrank by 30%, leading to an unemployment rate of 35%. More than three-quarters of companies have stopped or reduced production. Suffice it to say that three million people live in homes destroyed or damaged by the Russian invasion. The scale of the devastation caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine is truly overwhelming. The Russians destroyed or seriously damaged over 150,000 housing estates in Ukraine, thousands of educational facilities, over eight hundred healthcare facilities and hundreds of bridges. This catastrophe is a dire consequence of Russia’s 19th-century ambitions.

The reconstruction of Ukraine will undoubtedly take place once the conflict ends. But even as the war continues, discussions regarding the implementation of projects in Ukraine are underway. The funds required for this process will primarily come from Western countries such as the United States, Germany, Italy and France. Their vested interest transcends any simple consideration of profit and loss. Recently, the G7 countries established a donor platform to coordinate ongoing and long-term support to Ukraine and its post-war recovery. 

Ukraine can get loans from the World Bank (£240 million), and is poised to receive potential EU funding of up to €50 billion over four years in the form of both grants and loans. Additionally, US assistance to Ukraine totalling $1.3 billion will be provided for the modernisation of Ukraine’s energy system and critical infrastructure. 

The recovery plan is divided into three main pillars. The first pillar involves the rapid reconstruction of essential facilities and infrastructure for daily living. The second pillar addresses the urgent reconstruction of hospitals, schools and construction of temporary residential buildings. The third pillar consists of a long-term transformation plan for the country. 

Is rebuilding is possible?

The “Reconstruction of Ukraine” program has been initiated in Poland, spearheaded by the Polish Investment and Trade Agency (PAIH)., and three thousand Polish companies have already applied. The competition for contracts related to Ukraine’s reconstruction will certainly be fierce, and extend beyond the borders of Poland alone. Of course, the influence and power of various countries will play a pivotal role in the outcome. 

For Polish companies interested in securing contracts in Ukrainian, several strategies should be considered. Perhaps employ Ukrainians, and look for partners among Ukrainian companies? This will facilitate communication and understanding of these difficult conditions of the very wild East. 

Even before the war, Ukraine faced issues such as nepotism, corruption, and a range of macroeconomic challenges, coupled with geopolitical risks. After the war, if it will be necessary to clear the ports of mines, temporarily restricting water transport for business activities. The reconstruction of roads to facilitate land transport will be necessary and urgent. Nevertheless, the war continues, and Ukraine’s population is dwindling every day.