Retail market - big agglomerations on the rise

As many as 590,000 sqm of modern retail stock is currently under construction, 252,000 sqm of which will be delivered in the largest agglomerations, according to international advisory company JLL. “At the end of Q2 2015 modern retail stock in Poland totaled 12.54 million sqm consisting of 8.96 million sqm (72%) in shopping centers; 3.39 million sqm (27%) in retail parks and warehouses, and 0.19 million sqm (1%) in outlet centers. In H1 2015 148,600 sqm of shopping centre space was commissioned for use, including 46,600 sqm in Q2. In terms of shopping center density, with an average of 233 sqm/ 1,000 residents, Poland remains above the European average of 198 sqm but below the 260 sqm to be found in western Europe”, said Jan Jakub Zombirt, Associate Director, Research and Consulting, JLL. “Retail markets in several largest agglomerations - primarily in Wrocław and Poznań, but also in Łódź, the Tri-City, Katowice and Warsaw are preparing to deliver projects that will significantly change their retail map. The total current supply of shopping center stock under construction amounts to 590,000 sqm. However, unlike in recent years, much of this pipeline - 252,000 s m - is being developed in the largest agglomerations”, adds Jan Jakub Zombirt. In Wrocław, Unibail-Rodamco has started the development of Wroclavia (64,000 sqm), while in Poznań Apsys is already well advanced with Posnania (100,000 sqm). Retail competition will be fierce in these agglomerations, as density ratios are already at very high levels: 617 sqm/ 1,000 residents in Wrocław and 622 sqm/1,000 residents in Poznań, against the average density in the largest agglomerations of 502 sq m. In Łódź, the Sukcesja shopping mall is under construction (46,000 sqm), in the Tri-City, Galeria Metropolia (34,000 sqm), and work on Forum Gdańsk (62,000 sq m) will commence soon. In the Katowice agglomeration, Supersam (23,000 sq m) in Katowice and Galeria Galena in Jaworzno, (31,400 sq m) which will be delivered this year. In Warsaw, one of GTC’s flagship projects, Galeria Północna shopping centre (64,000 sq m) in the Białołęka district has now received a building permit, while another GTC project, Galeria Wilanów (61,000 sq m), is planned to start next year as administrative procedures are still ongoing. Both projects are being leased by JLL.