17:44 16 June 2025
Goldman Sachs experts warn corrections ahead for Polish stock exchange
Poland’s stock market surged in 2025, with MSCI Poland up over 40% in USD, but Goldman Sachs warns the rally may fade. Analysts attribute gains mainly to valuation re-ratings, not earnings growth. Political risk is rising after the presidential election was won by a PiS candidate, raising concerns over legislative gridlock with Tusk’s government. Hawkish statements by NBP’s president also cloud monetary policy outlook.
Economic indicators are weakening—PMI dropped to 47.1 in May—and profit revisions have turned negative. Sectors most exposed to correction include banks, state-controlled companies, and exporters sensitive to currency strength. Goldman expects just 1% WIG return over 12 months and suggests hedging. Long-term, strong fundamentals may offer future reentry opportunities.
