1:45 3 December 2020
S&P agency assumes compromise between Poland and EU and lowers Polish GDP forecast
The S&P Global Ratings agency assumes that Poland and the EU will work out a compromise on making the payment of EU funds dependent on compliance with the rule of law, according to the agency's report of December 2. S&P lowered Poland's GDP growth forecast in 2021 to 3.8 percent from 4.5 percent.
"Poland may be one of the main beneficiaries of the reconstruction plan for Europe (Next Generation Fund) and the SURE program. Support may also be available from other EU mechanisms. Considering the significant role played by EU funds in the Polish development model, our baseline scenario assumes that the EU and Polish (and also Hungarian) authorities will find a compromise as to the potential dependence of payments of some EU funds on compliance with the rule of law," the report reads.
After a solid rebound in Q3, S&P expects the Polish economy to shrink in Q4 due to epidemic restrictions and increased risk aversion from households and companies. In its opinion, restrictions on economic activity will be gradually loosened in Q1 2021, so the recovery of the economy in this period will be subdued.
In 2022, S&P forecasts an increase in Poland's GDP by 4.2 percent.
(PAP)
