Poland's economic prospects are looking bright, with optimistic GDP growth forecasts. BNP Paribas economists predict the Polish economy will grow at a rate of 4% in both 2024 and 2025, marking the most optimistic forecast in years. This outlook is driven by increased consumer spending, a slowing inflation rate, and anticipated inflow of EU funds.

Credit Agricole Bank has forecasted Poland's GDP growth at 2.8% for this year, while mBank suggested 3.5%. However, BNP Paribas' analysis points to an even brighter future for Poland's economy. The recent wage data, which showed a 12% year-on-year increase in March, and a significant real wage increase of 9.8%, support this optimistic outlook. These gains are expected to boost consumption and retail sales, contributing to robust economic growth.

Moreover, retail sales increased by 6% in March. The chief economist of BNP Paribas Bank, Michał Dybuła, anticipates that labor income will grow dynamically, with an expected average salary increase of 13.5% in 2024. This growth in labor income, coupled with a larger fiscal transfer due to increased benefits and pension indexation, will lead to a rise in consumer spending and potentially a higher savings rate. Dybuła predicts a savings increase of about PLN 65 billion, raising the savings rate from 2.5% in 2023 to over 5% in 2024.

These factors contribute to the positive economic outlook for Poland, with a projected increase in GDP and sustained consumer-driven growth over the next two years.