19:32 13 March 2024
Santander Bank Polska Predicts 5.5% GDP Deficit, Higher Dividend Income
Economists from Santander Bank Polska anticipate a 5.5% GDP deficit for the general government sector, exceeding the government's 5.1% projection. They attribute this to lower-than-expected VAT revenues, partially offset by increased income from PIT, contributions, and dividends. The bank deems the government's target of nearly 30% VAT revenue growth to PLN 316 billion as unrealistic, considering adjusted GDP and inflation forecasts. Despite the Ministry of Finance's expedited tax refunds in December 2023, estimated VAT revenues may still fall short by PLN 25-30 billion. Santander Bank Polska expects household income to surpass budget assumptions, potentially boosting PIT and social security revenues by around 1% (approximately PLN 7.5 billion). Moreover, dividend income is forecasted to exceed the budgeted PLN 2.5 billion, reaching approximately PLN 6 billion.
Source: inwestycje.pl
