22:56 2 June 2022
In H2 2022 we will enter a technical recession: BNP Paribas
The Polish economy is entering a period of stagnation. In the second half of 2022, one should even expect a technical recession, i.e. a decline in GDP for at least two consecutive quarters. This is what the chief economist of BNP Paribas bank in Poland predicts.
"We expect that the best is behind us. Now we are entering a period of stagnation or technical recession. Only in 2023 do we expect economic growth to accelerate," Michał Dybuła, chief economist at BNP Paribas Bank Polska, estimates.
The Bank assumes in its base-case scenario that Poland will experience a technical recession in the second half of 2022. In turn, at the beginning of next year, Polish GDP growth is expected to oscillate around 0 percent in annual terms.
As for the whole of 2023, economic growth in Poland is expected to reach 1.5 percent y/y.
"Next year, we expect a quarterly economic growth rate around the potential of 0.7-0.8 percent q/q. On the other hand, due to the low starting point, the average annual growth will be quite meager," Dybuła added.
