4:14 9 May 2025
Rate cuts expected to resume
The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) is expected to pause interest rate cuts in June before resuming them in July, followed by further reductions in September and November—each by 25 basis points—according to economists at ING Bank Śląski. They forecast the reference rate will drop to 4.50% by the end of 2025 and to 3.75% by the end of 2026. ING’s inflation outlook is slightly more optimistic than the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP), prompting expectations of continued monetary easing. At a recent press conference, NBP President and MPC Chair Adam Glapiński clarified that policy “adjustment” does not guarantee a steady rate-cut cycle. He also indicated a rate cut in June is unlikely, with decisions more likely in July, when new inflation projections are available, or in the fall. On May 7, the MPC cut rates by 50 basis points, bringing the main reference rate to 5.25%.
