Monetary and fiscal stimulus measures in response to the Covid-19 crisis surpassed $18 trillion in 2020, 1.3 times the GDP of China. However, different levels of support mean different rates of return to the previous situation. The monetary stimulus indicators developed by Allianz and Euler Hermes show record high levels in the US, the euro area and the UK. China, on the other hand, is still a long way from the record high after the 2009 financial crisis. The amount of global fiscal support since March 2020 has reached USD 10.4 trillion (12% of global GDP) and corresponded to 3% -18% of individual countries' GDP. This, together with the scope of automatic stabilization measures, will shape the trajectory of a future return to normality in individual countries. Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Austria are likely to recover faster, while Japan, the US, Spain, the UK and Italy will need even more fiscal support to compensate for the weakness of the automatic stabilizers. We predict that pre-crisis GDP levels in Europe will not be reached until 2022-2023, while in China and the US it will be a year earlier - depending on how countries deal with the second wave of the epidemic. The key question remains as to the further support measures to be applied to the sectors most affected by the crisis until the end of the year. As a result of the increase in the insolvency rate in the second half of 2020 and in 2021, we expect a 35% increase in the global number of bankruptcies for the period 2020-2021.

Minor local restrictions (lockdowns) are still likely, including cross-border traffic restrictions and event bans. The measures implemented as part of the implemented policies will be divided into targeted aid measures for the sectors most affected by the crisis.

(WBJ)