17:26 27 November 2023
Poland and CE should avoid recession despite Germany’s pessimistic outlook
The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicator highlights economic disparities between Germany and Poland in early 2023. Excess stock reduction in German industries led to a 10% decline in economic sentiment, while Poland's industrial performance remained resilient. Germany's construction and industrial sectors faced worsening sentiments due to higher interest rates, whereas Poland's construction thrived with government support.
Despite global factors impacting industrial orders, Poland's production remained robust, potentially due to gains from nearshoring. However, Polish companies linked to the German economy expressed concerns. The German recession slowed this year's growth, with Central European economies largely avoiding recession. The IMF predicts a modest growth rebound in 2024, with persistently high inflation.
Source: Deloitte
