Brexit may limit exports, threaten long-term credit agreements concluded before Brexit and affect the settlement of disputes by courts, experts of Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK) believe.
“We can expect a strong reduction in exports to Great Britain, and it is worth remembering that about 8 percent of Poland's exports go to the United Kingdom. In addition to customs rates, non-tariff restrictions, such as custom, sanitary and phytosanitary controls, required certificates and documents allowing the use of various foreign products in the UK may also affect trade. Some companies will have problems staying competitive in this market,” Artur Sadowski, the managing director of the credit risk division at BGK, said.
The bank expert said that according to the calculations of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in London, in the case of Brexit with the contract, UK imports will decrease by 11 percent. In the case of hard Brexit, the decline will be 19 percent, and the rate of Polish exports to Great Britain may slow down to approx. 3.2 percent, according to forecasts of the Polish Economic Institute (PIE). After the United Kingdom leaves the community, there may be a problem of continuing long-term loan agreements, he added.