The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for Poland dropped by 1.27 percent y/y in July, increased by 0.15 percent m/m and amounted to 98.51 points, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reported. Level 100.00 points is the long-term average of the index.
According to OECD, the CLI of over 100 points means expansion of the economy, the CLI below 100 points means a downturn. CLI in a downtrend and below 100 points defines a slowdown, while the increasing CLI below the level of 100 points means recovery in the economy. CLI is ahead of the business cycles, the OECD intends the shift to be 6-9 months.
OECD selects the key components of the index separately for each country. In the case of Poland, the following factors are taken into account: the real effective exchange rate, the WIBOR 3M rate, and also provided by the Central Statistical Office (GUS): economic situation in the processing industry, number of job offers and coal production dynamics.