According to the autumn edition of the report by research firm Spectis, owing to relatively good performance the construction industry delivered in the first half of the year, analysts revised 2020 forecasts upwards. Spectis expects that the market value real change will reach around 3 percent for the total market and 5 percent for companies with more than nine workers, versus falls of around 5 percent and 6 percent, respectively, projected last spring.

Unlike 2017-2019, the sector’s change will not be driven by all the three construction segments in 2020 and 2021. The slowdown will exert the strongest impact on private construction. Construction companies with sizeable exposure to building construction can find it very hard with securing enough orders to utilize their capacity in 2021 and 2022.

Out of the three segments of the construction industry, the non-residential sector will be hurt the most due to the coronavirus pandemic. However, the pandemic only propelled and aggravated the declines that had already been suggested in the data on building permits issued in 2019 (a 19 percent fall). In terms of supply, most non-residential projects, which are already underway, progress smoothly, without undue problems or delays. However, in the coming quarters some projects planned will be put on hold.

On the back of anti-crisis measures (financial shields, interest rate cut, job protection, re-opening of the economy in June), the coronavirus pandemic will exerts a less severe impact on the growth of residential construction. Sharper declines in residential construction will also be prevented thanks to the substantial contribution of the single-family housing segment, which has reported a less severe downturn compared to home builders. 

(WBJ)