The Polish economy has been coping well with the pandemic so far, and according to Eurostat, in Q3 it experienced the second slowest pace of GDP decline in annual terms in the European Union, right after Lithuania. The forecasts for this and next year are also not bad. “Many industries will only start when we are vaccinated,” Piotr Kuczyński, the financial market analyst, emphasized. However, there are still questions about the length and rigor of lockdown 2.0 and the fate of negotiations on the next EU budget perspective.
“The current situation of the Polish economy is quite good, of course until the creeping lockdown is turned on. Unemployment at 6 percent is not high compared to other countries across Europe,” Piotr Kuczyński said.
According to him, it looked like that this year's GDP will fall by 2.5-3 percent, but this creeping lockdown has triggered, which will lower our GDP by an additional 0.5 percentage point (or more if there is a full lockdown). However, the rulers do not want this and will do their best not to introduce it.
“At the moment it is very fashionable among economists to describe this crisis with the letter K. So we have a sharp decline first, then some industries go sharply up, and some sharply down. People from the catering, tourism, hospitality, and culture sectors are the most affected. These sectors should start as soon as possible, but unfortunately, in my opinion, it will not start on a full scale until Q2-Q3 next year, when we get vaccinated,” he said.