An analysis conducted by Oxford Economics, a British analytical company, shows that cut-off from EU funds would be very costly to Poland. Mateusz Urban, the author of the study, considers a scenario in which the European Commission may benefit from linking the payment of money to the rule of law. In such a situation, Poland could lose access not only to the reconstruction package but also to the structural funds provided for us in the so-called financial perspective of the EU. We are talking about €111 billion, which is the equivalent of 22 percent of Polish GDP.
If this had happened, public investment spending would drop by as much as 25 percent in the first place. The expected level of investment expenditure was used as the basis for the comparisons if Poland had access to both the financing of the National Reconstruction Plan and structural funds.
Besides, the zloty would lose about 10 percent against the dollar. in such a variant, inflation could rise to 9 percent already in the first quarter of 2022, and the GDP growth next year would be 3.6 percent, instead of 4.7 percent.