Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed Poland's long-term foreign currency rating at "A-" with a stable outlook. The agency highlighted Poland’s strong and diversified economy, solid macroeconomic policies, and stable budget revenues as key factors supporting this rating. However, it also pointed to challenges such as fiscal deficits and governance issues that could impact future assessments.

The agency warned that a downgrade could occur if Poland fails to consolidate its public finances and stabilize its debt. Additionally, weaker economic growth due to declining competitiveness or prolonged economic struggles among trade partners could negatively affect the rating. On the other hand, an upgrade would be possible if Poland successfully reduces its debt, improves governance and political stability, and maintains higher GDP growth without macroeconomic imbalances.

Fitch expects Poland’s military spending to reach 5% of GDP, adding strain to public finances. The fiscal deficit is projected to decline slowly, reaching 5.0% of GDP in 2026. Meanwhile, the debt-to-GDP ratio is forecasted to rise to 64% by 2028 before stabilizing. The country’s GDP growth outlook has been revised downward to 3.1% for 2025 and 2026, while inflation is expected to remain at 4.5% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026. Fitch also anticipates that Poland's central bank will gradually lower interest rates, reaching 4.25% by 2026.

Political tensions, fiscal imbalances, and external economic conditions remain key risks to Poland’s financial stability. Despite these challenges, Poland's economic fundamentals and EU integration continue to provide resilience.

(obserwatorfinansowy.pl)