According to Economic Outlook EMEA Emerging Markets Q1 2022 by S&P, Poland's GDP growth is expected to remain robust in 2022 at 5 percent, on par with an expected 2021 outturn of 5.2 percent. Still, the 2022 growth forecast is 0.3 percentage points lower than the September baseline, mainly because of a somewhat less bullish view on fixed investment growth in the context of the increasing tensions between the Polish government and the EU concerning the Polish judicial system reforms. S&P assumes a limited negative impact from the recent surge in Cpvid-19 cases on consumer spending in fourth-quarter 2021. Household consumption should remain the key economic growth driver, helped by a strong labor market, wage growth, and loose fiscal policy.
“We expect headline inflation to peak in fourth-quarter 2021, and then decelerate from early 2022, driven by a significant slowdown in energy inflation amid a lower oil price, and further helped by a temporary tax cut. Accelerating nonenergy inflation, however, somewhat counteracts the slowdown in headline consumer price growth: a higher pass-through of producer prices as well as tax hikes on alcohol and tobacco will drive up prices. In addition, labor shortages that existed before the pandemic and wage growth put upward pressure on prices. Inflationary pressures are exacerbated by the generous fiscal stance,” the report reads.