Although Poland's debt is not high compared to other European countries, and the last 30 years have been a period of economic success, investors still approach our market with limited confidence. Similarly to other countries included in the group of emerging countries. Additionally, this trend was exacerbated by the pandemic. Therefore, according to prof. Stanisław Gomułka, the former deputy finance minister, the government should be careful about the level of debt so that the Greek scenario does not repeat itself, and comply with the European Union's requirements regarding the rule of law. Lowering EU funding will result in a deeper recession.
“Probably this year, and even more so next year, we will exceed the constitutional threshold of 60 percent of public debt to GDP. If there was an even greater excess than forecasted by the Ministry of Finance, e.g. 70, 80 or 90 percent, then we enter the so-called the Greek path with very bad consequences, with a very strong increase in the cost of debt servicing,” Prof. Stanisław Gomułka, chief economist at Business Center Club, said.
“We are still far from what happened in Greece in 2008, but then there was help from the European Central Bank, and Poland is not a member of the euro area and cannot count on this kind of help,” he warned.
At the end of the second quarter of 2020, Poland's public debt amounted to PLN 1.256 trillion, over PLN 200 billion more than in the previous year. This is 55.1 percent of GDP, according to Eurostat calculations. As a result of the pandemic and lockdowns, the amended budget law foresees a deficit of PLN 109.3 billion this year (although Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced that it would probably be lower, but without giving specific amounts). For 2021, the government assumed a budget deficit of no more than PLN 82.3 billion. Since, prior to the coronavirus, it was assumed that this year would achieve a balance between state revenues and expenditures, only in these two years the government debt alone may increase by almost PLN 200 billion.