Poland’s economy will shrink by 7.4 percent in 2020 and will rebound by 4.8 percent next year provided that there is only one wave of the coronavirus pandemic, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said on June 10. The global economy is experiencing the worst peacetime recession in a century, according to the OECD.
Given a second wave of infections, the country’s GDP may drop even more, by 9.5 percent, the OECD said. In the more pessimistic case, the 2021 rebound would also be weaker, at 2.4 percent.
Despite the government’s relief efforts, rising unemployment may hinder consumption growth and uncertainty will negatively affect private investment, which will curb the rate of restoring economic growth, the OECD added.
In the mild scenario, Poland’s general government deficit will reach 9.4 percent of GDP in 2020 and 7.1 percent in 2021. Under the pessimistic scenario, the figures are predicted at 11.3 and 10.3 percent, respectively.
The OECD has recommended lifting the current ban on Sunday trading to prop up the ailing retail sector and a suspension or lifting of the banking tax if the banking sector experiences problems.
Based in Paris, OECD is a multilateral economic organization with 37 member countries, founded in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and world trade.