German slow-down to negatively affect Polish exports

The weak state of Germany's manufacturing sector is expected to turn Poland's trade surplus into a deficit in 2024, as Germany remains Poland's main export destination, accounting for 27% of exports in the first half of the year. PKO BP economists project a slightly negative net export contribution to GDP in 2024, around -0.6 percentage points. Germany's economy is forecasted to shrink by 0.1% in 2024, according to economic institutes.

This slowdown will reduce demand for Polish exports, limiting Poland's economic growth. Without this negative factor, Poland's GDP growth could exceed 4%, but is now forecasted at 3.5%. Improvement depends on a recovery in German consumption.

(wnp.pl)