Economists indicate that another ruling of the Supreme Court on foreign currency mortgage loans may be the source of the zloty exchange rate volatility this week. In turn, the release of preliminary GDP data in Poland, scheduled for Friday, which will take place on Friday, is supposed to be conducive to the weakening of the currency. According to economists' forecasts, the Polish economy shrank by approx. 1 percent in the first quarter on an annual basis.

Bank Millennium economists indicate that while the beginning of the week saw a slight increase in the EUR/PLN exchange rate – on the basis of risk reduction observed in recent weeks before the decisions of the Court of Justice of the European Union and the Supreme Court – with the next Supreme Court ruling, which will be issued on Tuesday, the zloty will try to play stronger again. Experts assume that the Court will confirm the discounted scenario, which may result in a slight decline in the EUR/PLN exchange rate, which is currently fluctuating between 4.55-4.59.

They are also counting on a continuation of the zloty appreciation against the dollar. In the context of attempts to forecast the behavior of the Polish currency, PKO BP analysts focus on macroeconomic data from the Polish economy. Due to the significant – in their opinion – weight of data from the Polish economy, they assume the possibility of a slight weakening of the zloty. 

"We assume that in the near future the EUR/PLN exchange rate will move towards 4.57 and the USD/PLN rate close to 3.80,″ the economists of PKO BP forecasted.

(300gospodarka)