According to the most likely scenario, the population of Warsaw will increase to 2.044 million inhabitants over the next few years, and then will slowly decline, at least until 2050.
PAN researchers – Przemysław Śleszyński, Łukasz Kubiak and Ewa Korcelli-Olejniczak - have prepared the Demographic Forecast for Warsaw, in which they try to predict the dynamics of population changes in the Polish capital over the next 30 years.
Based on the data provided by Orange Polska, 1.978 million inhabitants have been adopted as the starting point for the forecast, including the population of 213,000 unregistered people living in Warsaw. Depending on the adopted scenario, scientists estimate that the population in 2030 will be 1.98-2.13 million, and in 2050 – 1.78- 2.25 million inhabitants (including the current population of unregistered residents).
However, what is particularly interesting, according to researchers, Warsaw will reach its maximum population already in 2028.
The situation will not be the same in all districts of the capital – depopulation will mainly affect downtown districts. Regardless of the assumptions made in two districts – Śródmieście and Praga Północ – scientists predict a decline in population compared to 2018.
As the authors of the study write, there are currently no potential sources of a strong increase in the population of Warsaw in the future.
"This is due to both the depletion of traditional source regions of migrants and the level of fertility in the city, which, despite relatively high values compared to other Polish cities, does not provide the so-called simple replacement of generations," the scientists stated.
"Population growth could only take place in the case of much stronger immigration than it is now (several times greater inflow), both due to a greater internal drain (at the expense of other cities in the country) and an inflow from abroad," they added.