If the victory in Euro 2020 was determined by the strength of economies and stock exchanges, Switzerland would win the championship after an exciting final with England, according to the model developed by Rzeczpospolita daily.
The model takes into account GDP data for 2020 and GDP forecasts for 2021 and 2022 prepared by the International Monetary Fund, its forecasts for the unemployment rate for 2021, data on GDP per capita, and changes in major stock indices in individual countries for the last 12 months. In the group stage, the daily awarded points to the two best "teams" in each category. In this model, Poland is the best team from Group E, with Sweden in second place and Spain only third.
According to the model, in the eighth final there will be matches between Russia and France, Switzerland and the Netherlands, Germany, and Denmark, the Czech Republic and Sweden, Poland and Ukraine, England and Hungary, Austria and Spain as well as Belgium and Turkey. The quarter-finals will be played by: Russia and Switzerland, Germany and Sweden, Poland and England, as well as Austria and Belgium. In an economic match between Poland and England, we would have lost after extra time due to nominal GDP.
The semi-finals would be between Switzerland and Germany and between England and Belgium. In the final match in London, Switzerland would win against England thanks to higher GDP per capita, lower unemployment rate, a slower decline in GDP in 2020, and a faster rise in the main stock market index. The Swiss SIX index has gained 45 percent in the last 12 months, while the British FTSE 100 has increased by 12 percent.