17:55 4 July 2025
NBP Forecasts 3.6 Percent GDP Growth in 2025, Followed by Slowdown
Poland’s economy is projected to grow by 3.6 percent in 2025, slowing to 3.1 percent in 2026 and 2.5 percent in 2027, according to the latest inflation projection report from the National Bank of Poland (NBP).
The forecast reflects strong EU fund inflows, particularly from the 2021–2027 budget and the National Recovery Plan (KPO), which are expected to boost investment. However, weak external demand – especially due to continued stagnation in Germany – will limit the role of exports in GDP growth this year.
NBP anticipates that investment will rise sharply in 2025–2026 but decline in 2027 as EU recovery funding winds down. Meanwhile, rising real interest rates are expected to dampen domestic demand over time.
Despite initial growth momentum, economic activity is set to moderate from late 2026, reducing demand pressure and supporting further disinflation. The forecast assumes the NBP’s key interest rate remains unchanged at 5.25 percent throughout the projection period.
(ISBnews)
