4:53 18 September 2025
Market doubts AI boom
Markets remain cautious about whether artificial intelligence will spark broad economic growth. Long-term U.S. bond yields—often seen as a barometer of growth expectations—have not risen following major AI model launches from OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google. In fact, yields typically fell by about 10 basis points, suggesting investors doubt AI’s near-term macroeconomic impact.
If markets believed AI would accelerate growth, long-term rates should be climbing. Instead, the decline indicates tempered expectations: AI is recognized as important, but its transformative potential remains uncertain. Some of the drop even began before launches, reflecting advance pricing.
Meanwhile, tech firms like Nvidia profit handsomely from AI demand, fueling stock rallies. But strong micro-level gains don’t guarantee macro-level shifts. Historically, revolutions like electricity and computing reshaped economies over decades—not months. Investors seem to be betting AI will follow a similarly gradual path.
