The shadow economy in Poland is projected to decrease slightly this year, making up 18.5% of GDP (PLN 756 billion), according to the Institute of Economic Forecasting and Analysis (IPAG). This is a slight reduction from 18.9% of GDP in 2023.
IPAG attributes the decrease to an improved economic outlook in 2024, with an estimated 3% growth rate and inflation at 4.5%. Higher minimum wages and an influx of EU funds from the National Reconstruction Plan (KPO) are expected to increase demand for small businesses and encourage a shift towards legal operations. The growth of cashless transactions also plays a role in reducing the shadow economy and enhancing economic efficiency.
Source: 300gospodarka.pl
