As October begins, we enter the period of peak activity in the office real estate market. Colliers’ analysis of data from the past decade clearly indicates that nearly one-third of all office transactions in a given year are signed in the fourth quarter. This is the time when the pressure to close negotiations, finalize processes started in mid-year, and secure office space for the coming months coincides with intensified activity from both developers and tenants.

Demand Reaches Its Peak

On average, the fourth quarter brings nearly 200 signed office lease agreements, accounting for 29% of the annual total. High activity levels are driven by several overlapping factors – companies strive to finalize transactions before year-end to include them in annual results or use allocated budgets. At the same time, the second half of the year is when the largest number of analyses and forecasts become available, providing important support for decision-making processes. Negotiations that began in the spring and summer most often conclude with agreements in the autumn, further reinforcing this seasonal pattern.

“The fourth quarter is when the office market accelerates. At this stage, agility and accurate interpretation of market signals are crucial to prepare for the coming months and even years. As advisors aware of this rhythm, we also intensify our own efforts – analyzing trends and developing insights to help companies close the year as effectively as possible,”
says Paweł Proński, Director, Office Agency, Colliers.

The beginning of the year is usually the period of the lowest market activity. In the first quarter, an average of just over 160 office lease agreements are signed, representing 23% of the annual volume. This results from the fact that companies are only just launching new budgets, reviewing performance, and are less likely to make final leasing decisions at that stage.

The Supply and Demand Cycle

While demand for office space peaks in the fourth quarter, the number of new projects delivered to the market accumulates in the second quarter. Between 2015 and 2025, developers handed over an average of five new projects during this period – accounting for 31% of the annual supply. The first quarter ranked second (27% of annual completions). This means that nearly 60% of projects enter the market in the first half of the year.

“This schedule results from the construction cycle – the slowdown during winter makes spring and early summer the natural time to complete projects. Weather conditions at that time also favor technical inspections and finishing works. Developers tend to avoid the end of the year, when the holiday season and reduced administrative availability may cause delays,”
explains Anna Laskowska, Analyst at Colliers.

Summer months bring moderate transaction activity. The third quarter accounts for an average of 24% of annual lease agreements – a figure similar to the second quarter, but lower than year-end levels. However, this is also the period when the fewest new projects are completed – only 20% of annual supply – due to both the holiday season and the limited availability of construction crews.

Asynchronous Cycles and Their Consequences

Data from 2015–2025 clearly shows that supply and demand cycles in the real estate market are out of sync. The distinct time lag between these cycles has significant market implications. The year-end period often brings high demand alongside a relatively low number of new projects – limiting options and increasing competition among tenants. Meanwhile, in spring, when the largest number of new projects enter the market, tenant activity is lower. This leads to a situation where property owners must compete for tenants by offering additional incentives and more favorable lease terms.

“Tenants planning expansion or relocation can seek more advantageous terms in spring and summer, when supply is at its highest and competition for space is lower. In turn, landlords and developers should prepare their pre-let strategies with the fourth quarter in mind, when the market reaches peak activity,”
adds Paweł Proński.

Translated from Polish.