18:06 15 October 2024
Credit Agricole: inflation will drop significantly in second half of 2025
Inflation in Poland is expected to remain above the central bank's (NBP) target until mid-2025, peaking at 5.4% in March 2025, then gradually decreasing. Analysts from Credit Agricole predict a significant drop in inflation during the second half of 2025, though it will still hover near the upper limit of the inflation target (3.5%). A potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected in the third quarter of 2025.
The September 2023 inflation rate was 4.9% y/y, driven by rising core inflation (4.3%), higher food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, and an increase in energy costs. The rise in food prices is attributed to poor harvests and record global butter prices. However, falling fuel prices partially offset these increases. Wage pressures continue to drive inflation in the services sector, with wages growing by 14.7% in the second quarter of 2023.
(pb.pl)
