5:12 12 June 2025
Early euro adoption risky
Premature euro adoption poses major risks to Poland’s economy, warns Adam Glapiński, President of the National Bank of Poland. Writing in Bank i Kredyt, he argues Poland’s structural differences from the eurozone make shared monetary policy unsuitable.
Key concerns include losing control over interest rates and the floating exchange rate—critical tools for managing shocks. Glapiński stresses Poland’s higher labor market flexibility, underdeveloped rental market, lower private-sector debt (58.5% of GDP vs. 157.6% in the eurozone), and stronger trade openness. These differences could make Poland more vulnerable to asymmetric shocks.
Since 2004, Poland’s average annual growth has been 3.8%, outpacing the eurozone’s 1.2%. Its natural interest rate has also been 2–3 points higher, underscoring the need for independent monetary policy. Joining the euro prematurely could trigger boom-bust cycles, higher unemployment, and loss of competitiveness. While future convergence may shift this balance, Glapiński believes current euro adoption would be economically harmful.
