Economists of mBank revised economic growth forecasts and expect a 4.2 percent GDP decline in 2020, while next year an increase of 3.5 percent.
According to them, GDP increased by 1.5 percent y/y in the first quarter of this year, and from the second quarter, it will fall – by 8.4 percent in the second quarter, by 5.7 percent in the third quarter and by 4 percent in the fourth quarter.
The average annual inflation – according to bank forecasts – will amount to 2.9 percent this year and 1.3 percent in the next year (against 2.8 percent last year).
In their opinion, despite the liquidity provided by the government, companies will limit their activity, including investment, which will also have a negative impact on the labor market.
According to mBank, the registered unemployment rate will be 8.6 percent at the end of the second quarter of this year, 12 percent at the end of the third quarter and 13 percent at the end of the fourth quarter.