The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has raised its estimate of global GDP in 2020 to minus 4.5 percent against minus 6 percent in the previous projection, according to the latest report. In 2021, global GDP is expected to recover to +5 percent vs +5.2 percent in the previous forecast.
"The outlook for global GDP growth depends on many factors, including the size and duration of new Covid-19 outbreaks, the extent to which current restrictive measures will be maintained or strengthened to confirm confidence, and the time to develop an effective treatment or vaccine, and the scope of demand support by fiscal and monetary policy," the report states.
"Projections assume that sporadic local outbreaks of coronavirus will continue to occur, with targeted local interventions rather than national restrictions being fought; it is assumed that the Covid-19 vaccine will not become widely available until the end of 2021," it was added.
The upward revision of world GDP in 2020 is due to better-than-expected economic data in China, the US and Europe. China is the only country where GDP growth is forecast in 2020. Larger than previously expected GDP drops may be recorded, among others, in Argentina, Mexico, India and South Africa.