DABE NBP: demand for labor falling, wage growth weakening
Demand for labor in Poland is weakening, employment is declining, and wage growth is slowing, according to Jacek Kotłowski from the National Bank of Poland. Average employment in enterprises fell by 1.3% in the last quarter, reflecting lower demand for workers. At the same time, more employees are shifting from full-time contracts to civil-law and mandate contracts, partly due to economic uncertainty and migrant labor patterns. The NBP also notes that the period of “labor hoarding” is ending, as workers’ desired working hours are now closer to actual hours.
Wage growth slowed to 7.1% in Q3 (down from ~9%), influenced by lower inflation and more moderate demand. Despite this, real wages still rise above 4%, but are expected to converge toward productivity growth in the longer term.