The closure of the economy in spring 2020 translated into the first decline in the gross domestic product in 30 years compared to the previous year. National and international institutions predict a clear rebound for this year, but they are revising their forecasts downward with the next weeks of the lockdown. According to Dr. Bohdan Wyżnikiewicz, president of the Institute of Economic Forecasts and Analyzes, even in the black scenario, we will not face another year of recession, and GDP should be slightly higher than in 2019. Industry and exports as well as the fact that entrepreneurs have learned how to function under conditions of restrictions will support the economy.
“The economic outlook for 2021 is rather good. Nobody forecasts a decline in GDP compared to 2020 when we had less than 3 percent of the decrease in the value of GDP, i.e. a rebound will occur. The consensus of forecasts is in the range of 3-4 percent of GDP growth, although another lockdown and uncertainty related to its consequences will probably cause forecasters to lower their forecasts for this year. I think that this optimism will be a little less than now,” Dr. Bohdan Wyżnikiewicz said.
In 2019, the value of Polish GDP increased by 4.5 percent compared to 2018 and amounted to less than PLN 2.3 trillion. In 2020, according to preliminary estimates of the Central Statistical Office (GUS), this amount decreased by 2.8 percent. The second quarter was the worst when the economy shrank by 8 percent y/y. Many countries, especially southern Europe, however, had much larger declines – Spain by more than 20 percent, France and Italy – by almost 20 percent.