15:37 31 March 2025
GUS reporting on inflation may effect MPC decision on interest rate cuts
Weaker-than-expected inflation data in March (4.9% y/y) may fuel discussions within Poland’s Monetary Policy Council (RPP) about cutting interest rates. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, likely fell to 3.5%, near the top of the central bank’s target range. While no immediate rate cut is expected, the downward inflation trend could open the door to policy easing later in 2025. Economists predict inflation could fall below 4% by year-end, or even to 3%, depending on energy prices and government decisions.
However, risks remain—particularly due to drought, which could raise food prices. Despite the central bank president's hawkish stance, growing support within the RPP suggests cuts may come if forecasts are revised downward in July.
(pb.pl)
