4:55 21 January 2026
IMF lifts growth outlook
The International Monetary Fund has nudged up its global GDP forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, while keeping 2027 steady at 3.2%, according to the January World Economic Outlook. The projections suggest broadly stable growth near the estimated 3.3% for 2025.
The IMF cites offsetting forces behind the steady profile: tighter trade policies weighing on activity, countered by rising investment in advanced technologies—especially artificial intelligence—in North America and Asia, supportive fiscal and monetary settings, resilient financial conditions, and private-sector adaptability.
Global core inflation is expected to ease from an estimated 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, with a slower return to target in the United States than in other major economies.
Risks remain skewed to the downside. The Fund warns that weaker productivity expectations around AI, renewed trade frictions, geopolitical shocks, or fiscal strains could unsettle markets. Conversely, faster AI adoption and reduced trade tensions could lift medium-term growth.
