JLL's Q3 2024 forecast for Poland's residential market proved accurate, with a 6.9% q/q decline in new flat sales across major cities. Around 9,200 units were sold, with Warsaw remaining stable, Kraków seeing a slight increase, and other cities like Wrocław, Tri-City, Poznań, and Łódź experiencing sales drops, the latter two seeing the steepest declines at 22%-25%.
New supply also slowed, with 12,600 units introduced, except in Wrocław, where supply nearly doubled. In contrast, Łódź, Poznań, and Tri-City saw supply reductions of 36%-39%. Despite this, housing prices remained stable, with slight quarterly increases, driven by new developments targeting affluent buyers. Annual price growth was highest in Łódź (15.1%), Tri-City (14.0%), and Warsaw (11.5%).
High interest rates, uncertainty about future housing policies, and less attractive rental yields deterred non-urgent buyers and investors. While banks have started reducing mortgage rates for creditworthy buyers, inflation and delayed policy initiatives, including the 'Start/Zero Interest' loan, are likely to postpone significant market changes until 2026. JLL advises caution in launching new projects, noting that large developers are better equipped to navigate this period due to diversified portfolios and strong cash reserves.
(WBJ)
