According to Euler Hermes estimates, Polish exporters will lose PLN 1.6 billion in revenue only in the second half of 2021, after the current transition period and the introduction of border controls. British entrepreneurs will, of course, be the hardest hit – UK exporters could face a Brexit bill of up to £25 billion in lost revenues throughout 2021. Research by Euler Hermes, the world's leading trade credit insurer, shows that UK export-oriented companies will lose between £12-25 billion (around €13.5-27.3 billion) this year as a result of lower the demand for their goods and services, the increased bureaucracy involved in selling them and the depreciation of the pound sterling (minus 3% percent forecast for 2021). If the upper limit of losses from the expected development scenario is met, this means 1.1 percent of lost GDP in the United Kingdom with the sectors likely to be the hardest hit, that are manufacturers of minerals and metals, electrical machinery and equipment, transport equipment, chemicals, and textiles.
"For Polish companies, the effects of Brexit in its current form – as we perceive it, are primarily the view of congestion, lorries standing in traffic jams at the borders and tired drivers, that is, losses of carriers. Also losses of food suppliers, some of whom do not tolerate prolonged transport. These are the first effects that may not disappear completely with time, but will be milder," Tomasz Starus, member of the management board of Euler Hermes responsible for risk assessment, said.
“Other losses will be more permanent. At Euler Hermes, we estimate that administrative difficulties and disruptions in supply chains (including change of suppliers) will mostly affect: the machinery and electrical industries (including automotive parts manufacturers), followed by manufacturers of means of transport and e.g. semi-trailers and their parts, tires, etc.), producers of various consumer goods (home furnishings, furniture, etc.). Right behind them, because with the scale of losses estimated only in the second half of 2021 at PLN 125 million, there is the food sector (including alcohols) and, similarly, the chemical sector,” Starus added.