Economic models of climate change have greatly underestimated the costs of global warming. The economic damage caused by progressive climate change could be six times higher by the end of this century than previously estimated. This is according to the latest analysis by a team of scientists from European and US universities. It was published in the Environmental Research Letters journal. It takes into account the latest knowledge about the climate and the impact of climate change on the rate of economic growth.
'Integrated cost-benefit assessment models that estimate the societal cost of carbon emissions do not contain robust representations of climate feeds, economic feedbacks, and extreme climatic conditions,” the study reads.
"We don't know exactly how much climate change will have on long-term economic growth - but it's unlikely to be zero, and that's what most economic models assume," Dr. Chris Brierley, geographer and climate modeler at University College London, said.
The study showed that global GDP could be 37 percent lower by 2100 than it would have been without the effects of warming. Meanwhile, without taking into account the permanent damage – which is not taken into account in most estimates – GDP would be only about 6 percent lower.