0:20 16 January 2022
Euler Hermes also says 'Don't look up'
Euler Hermes presented the report ‘Do not look up’ on economic research and its forecasts for the development of the current global economic situation. Global economic growth should remain strong, but growth will be uneven. Poland – similarly to other countries from the Visegrad Group, has the possibility (due to moderate indebtedness) to maintain its support policy and to tighten fiscal policy more slowly compared to other emerging economies.
Meanwhile, however, the uncertainty related to the omicron may reduce the GDP growth of developed economies in the first quarter of this year by 0.3 percentage points, but will increase distortions in terms of working conditions and global trade. Global trade rises above its long-term average again, trade-in volume terms will increase by 5.4 percent in 2022 and 4.0 percent in 2023, high distortions and cost pressures will only persist in the short term – loss added value within 2-4 months in sectors without teleworking or (and) suffering from rising inflation due to lack of supplies from China (cause 1/3 of increased inflation).
Euler Hermes expects the base interest rates to be raised in Poland to 3 percent in 2022 (against 3.5 percent in Hungary, 4 percent in the Czech Republic, 4.5 percent in Romania, and 6.5 percent in Russia).
(WBJ)
