Fitch Ratings has affirmed Poland's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A-' with a Stable Outlook. Poland's ratings are supported by a diversified economy, a fairly sound macroeconomic framework anchored by EU membership, and slightly lower public debt levels than rated peers. This is balanced against lower governance indicators and income levels than the 'A' medians. The Stable Outlook reflects our expectation that the Polish economy will remain resilient to external shocks and macro-economic challenges, due in part to a commitment to and record of solid fiscal performance and an improved external balance sheet.
Still, Fitch forecasts GDP growth will fall from an estimated 5.7 percent in 2022 to 1.1 percent in 2023, as economic activity in Poland's main trade partners and domestic demand slow. High inflation, slowing household credit and weak consumer confidence will act as major headwinds to private consumption, offset to some extent by our expectation of higher public investment led by EU Cohesion Fund absorption, as the 2014-2020 multiannual financial framework (MFF) budget cycle ends.