A scenario in which a Brexit does not reach an agreement will create threats to the European automotive industry, as the economists of the investment bank Goldman Sachs indicate.
As indicated in the bank's announcement on Thursday, these include: ‘duties on cars, higher sourcing costs for raw materials / components and, to a lesser extent directly, the potential for regulatory mismatches between the UK and the EU.’
Under a black scenario, GS analysts estimated that Groupe PSA's operating profit before tax (EBIT) in 2021 may be around 7 percent lower. Correspondingly, for Renault it would be 6 percent. In turn, in the case of BMW and Volkswagen the potential losses would be lower – approx. 4.5 percent.
"Under the worst possible assumption (return to WTO tariffs), the estimated losses may be much higher," they assessed.
The UK left the EU on January 31, 2020.. During the transitional period until the end of 2020, the parties are trying to negotiate an agreement on future relationships.