“In connection with the information about the vaccine, a point has been set from which investors can count down the time to return to the relative normality of societies and economies,” was written in the weekly bulletin of the Pekao macroeconomic analysis department.
Pekao economists believe that the epidemic trajectory (new COVID cases) suggests that the restrictions introduced in European countries, translating into a decline in mobility and economic activity, are beginning to have the desired effect. The Czech Republic, Italy, Germany, and Spain were indicated.
"These conclusions do not apply to the UK, France, and Austria. In the latter country, the number of new cases has approached 10,000 and an almost complete lockdown has been introduced. On the other side of the Atlantic, the situation has started to spiral out of control again. Covid-19 cases in the United States have exceeded 170,000, and new restrictions are also introduced,” the analysts stated.
In the context of the presented little optimistic current epidemic data, it seems all the more important to properly interpret the effects of the announcement by the pharmaceutical company Pfizer and BioNTech about the success of the third phase of clinical trials of the vaccine for Covid-19. Economists admitted that they agree that there are still many questions about the parameters of the vaccine, its distribution network, logistic challenges (storage in ultra-low temperatures), or the very process of achieving the so-called herd immunity.
"(...), however, we still believe that this information is a breakthrough for the markets. Of course, it will not affect the epidemic trajectory in the coming months (although the company suggests producing 50 million doses, and the US administration assures that vaccination of risk groups is started soon) nor will it translate immediately into economic results. However, we would not at this point prefer the well-identified short-term threats to economies over the long-term outlook," the study reads.