10:10 1 April 2025
Poland's Not Waiting: Preparing the Geopolitical Future
In February of this year, Poland joined together with other geopolitical thinkers in the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics (BIG). Established in 2022, BIG aimed to enhance Europe’s strategic culture and help others understand the “changing historic and cultural shifts shaping Europe.” BIG’s Founding Director, Luuk van Middelaar, said of Poland’s membership, “It is a unique privilege to work alongside Polish colleagues to better understand the tectonic shifts tearing at Europe’s post-World War II security order and shape a collective response. Poland’s direct experience of the existential risks facing Europe will bring critical insights to the debate….”
BIG, established in 2022, coincided with the second phase of Russia's war against Ukraine. Coincidentally, Poland’s membership in BIG began on 28 Feb 2025, a few days after the third anniversary of the start of the war. Of course, establishing a geopolitical organization in Europe would now have to include Poland, a country all too familiar with Russia’s history of destructive machinations in eastern Europe, and one of Ukraine’s closest neighbors. It is Poland’s geography that has played such a critical part of its geopolitical history, as well as contributing to its current, geopolitical state.
At WBJ, we’ve written before about the benefits and strategic vulnerabilities of Poland’s geography. This is evident in the wars fought in and around Polish territory. We’ve also written about the rising economic power of Poland, its foreign direct investments, and its potential as a hub for a global trade system. We’ve discussed the negative effects of demographics and the disruption of large scale immigration. We have also discussed climate and environmental pressures with stories about the flooding in the south. All of these past discussions have happened within the framework of an old geopolitical system, a global trade network guaranteed in large part by the United States and its allies following the Bretton Woods agreement.
Yet now there comes a new reality–a post Bretton Woods system—where the one nation that ensured stability and security in global trade is adopting a historically inspired foreign policy: an "America First" approach. The geopolitical situation surrounding the war in Ukraine, combined with U.S. tariff pressures, has kept the złoty volatile, though Bank Millennium reports that it is trading at "the upper range of the channel."
As the U.S. seems to have abrogated its leadership responsibilities vis-a-vis NATO, which has now triggered a reassessment of the alliance, European security and how it is funded is up for debate. In Poland we have seen a ratcheting up of defense spending, including earmarking PLN 30 billion from the KPO for defense, according to PAP. WBJ has reported on Poland’s arms acquisitions from South Korea including K2 Black Panther tanks, FA-50 light attack aircraft, K9 howitzers, and K239 Chunmoo multi-barreled missile launchers. Poland also secured USD 12 billion worth of Apache helicopters, $10 billion for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), and $3.75 billion for M1A1 Abrams tanks from the US, according to AP. However, none of this equipment works without the personnel to maintain or operate it.
On 11 March 2025, Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that his government plans to put 100,000 volunteers through military training starting in 2027. This is on top of the 300,000 personnel required by the Homeland Defence Act (2022) passed by the former government. According to the AP, Tusk further stated that Poland needs approximately 500,000 soldiers (it total) for its territorial defense. As if that wasn’t enough, Poland’s defence minister joined Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in recommending the withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention, which banned the use and production of anti-personnel mines, according to Reuters. President Duda spoke with the FT making utterances about Poland hosting U.S. nuclear weapons in its territory, stating, “I think it’s not only that the time has come, but that it would be safer if those weapons were already here.” In the French newspaper “Le Monde” experts warned that it was time for a rearming of Europe and that Poland was a major player in this effort. As the U.S. withdraws from Europe, NATO would need 300,000 troops and boost its defense spending significantly, with estimates suggesting €250 billion annually to reach 3.5% of GDP.
And yet . . . Professor Andrzej K. Koźmiński, co-founder of the Leon Koźmiński Academy, stated recently that, “The war economy will drive GDP growth; in Poland, sectors such as high-tech, the defense industry, steel, and chemical industries will benefit. However, shifting into wartime mode could lead to the greatest crash in history.” Yet we see war mode starting with increased defense spending in Europe, and reflected in the shares of European defense companies.
Prof. Witold Orłowski, economist at Vistula University and Warsaw University of Technology, recently stated that Europe is overly dependent on exports to the U.S., on American defense support, Chinese consumer goods and Russian energy. “Europe has the potential to be a key global player, yet complacency and lack of cooperation hold it back.” Duplication of research and a lack of critical mass has held Europe back, including Poland. The destabilizing effects of Putin, and now Trump, should be the wake up call Europe needs for a centrally planned research effort. Europe continues acting like a confederation of states without centrally planned research and investment.
As things are now, we have the EU and the US trade tariffs. On 12 March, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on EU steel and aluminum imports. Trump warned of a 200% tariff on alcohol from the EU, including French wine. For Poland, these tariffs were not a major concern, as it is not a significant trading partner of the U.S. In fact, Poland’s top export to the U.S. is gas turbines, generating $1.89 billion in revenue, according to the OEC. Total exports to the U.S. amount to $12.6 billion. What could be more impactful is the exchange rate of the złoty against the dollar, which, according to Adam Glapiński, president of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) and chairman of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC), is influenced more by events in the U.S. and the American administration than by Poland’s monetary policy. Glapiński asserts that the dollar’s fluctuations have a significant impact on global currencies, including the złoty. The geopolitical situation surrounding the war in Ukraine, combined with U.S. tariff pressures, has kept the złoty volatile, though Bank Millennium reports that it is trading at "the upper range of the channel."
EY experts, in a recent report, predicted a decline in Poland’s corporate loan-to-GDP ratio due to geopolitical uncertainty, while German policy shifts may boost demand. From Swiss franc loans to WIBOR lawsuits, banking challenges persist—prompting Polish banks to focus on AI-driven efficiency and user experience improvements, while also requiring long-term investments.
Poland still continues to accrue FDI, including another $160 billion in 2025, according to Donald Tusk, spurred in part by tax cuts and deregulation. The Polish economy has been one of Europe’s fastest growing in recent years, however, double-digit wage growth and private consumption will only go so far. Investments in infrastructure (transportation, railway, energy and defense) are also smart investments for Poland. EU investments in Poland amount to €139.4 billion between 2021-2027 in the form of repayable aid, according to Statista. Europe is at least offering a helping hand to Poland as Poland leads the way in support for Ukraine. According to DHL, Poland is one of 20 European countries with the highest growth.
In WBJ's interview with futurist Natalia Hitalska, she stated that “total deglobalization is not possible.” So, despite Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping—despite conflict and stock market volatility—completely unplugging from the geopolitical world remains tricky, if not impossible, without nearshoring or friendshoring. Regional powers may break away, but geographically bound raw materials do not shift according to political will. The interconnected and volatile geopolitical landscape is a tricky minefield to navigate, keeping Poland on high alert.
