Last year, the Sino-US Trade War began to cause disruptions in supply and slowdown in economic growth. In the first quarter of 2020, the global economy fell victim to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to both supply (China's isolation) and demand (isolation in many other countries) shock, and the war on oil prices began between Russia and Saudi Arabia, which can significantly harm the US oil industry and global investment in general.
According to Peter Garnry from Saxo Bank, such enormous uncertainty and imbalances have not occurred globally since 2008. Because stock prices reflect future and growth prospects, they are most vulnerable to the current crisis. Investors are desperate to escape and realize huge long-term profits.
“Under the most pessimistic scenario, the S&P 500 index may fall to 1,600,” Garnry claimed.
He added that these calculations are by no means precise and not you should rely on them uncritically, because too many variables are too uncertain.
We are in a phase where policymakers provide the economy with many stimuli, including various loan programs from governments and the extension of tax payment deadlines. However, as more economic data are released, investors will realize that more resources are needed and stock exchanges will go down again. Ultimately the economy will receive enough incentives to regain balance. At this point, stock prices will come to the bottom.
(Peter Garnry - Saxo Bank)