Despite the recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic, we can expect the strengthening of the Polish currency in 2021. In economic analyzes, arguments in favor of an increase in the value of the zloty prevail. The first is that the weakening of our currency in 2020 was much smaller than during the previous economic crises - the financial crisis at the turn of 2008/2009 and the fiscal crisis in 2012. A good sign is also the strengthening of the euro on world markets and the decline in the value of the US dollar.
"Usually when the global economy comes out of recession, capital flows from the United States to emerging markets. That does not help the dollar anymore, and in this case, there are other factors as well. sufficiently high inflation – and after the change of president, we can expect a slightly softer trade policy. This will weaken the dollar and strengthen the euro - and this usually means an increase in the value of the currencies of the entire Central and Eastern Europe region, including the zloty," Rafał Benecki, chief economist of ING Bank Śląski, told eNewsroom.
"For the Polish currency, it will also be important that our economy will rebound quite dynamically next year. All this speaks for an increase in its value. However, the Central Bank is not very keen on strong zloty. Pre-holiday currency interventions show the Central Bank's preferences towards a weaker currency. I think this is the main factor that may stop the zloty appreciation in 2021. However, we do not think that this slowdown is very significant. Before the end of 2021, the euro could cost around PLN 4.40, the dollar around PLN 3.50, and the franc about PLN 4,” Benecki predicted.