3:56 11 June 2026
EY sees inflation rising, rates on hold through 2027
Poland's headline inflation overshot the central bank's 2.5 percent target again in May, reaching 3.1 percent year-on-year — up from 2.1 percent in February — driven primarily by higher fuel costs, according to a new report from EY published on June 10. Underlying core inflation also rose, from 2.5 to 3.0 percent. EY analysts expect headline inflation to approach 3.5 percent by year-end, with food prices set to accelerate in 2027 as higher fertiliser and commodity costs feed through the supply chain. The Middle East conflict's secondary effects — elevated energy prices — and the planned expansion of the EU's carbon trading scheme (ETS) will keep upward pressure on prices beyond the near term. As a result, EY expects the Monetary Policy Council to leave interest rates unchanged through the end of 2026 and into 2027, before gradually easing. The forecast puts EY among the more hawkish voices on Polish rates — most market consensus still pencils in at least one further cut this year.
