Everyone but the Polish government believes that the recent agreement reached in the European Council created a clear link between the rule of law and individual country funding from EU funds, thereby strengthening the Community's ability to punish Member States that fail to respect the rule of law.
However, as the consulting company founded by Ian Bremmer and dealing with political risk Eurasia Group believes, France and Germany will not try to antagonize Poland or Hungary, because their support is needed to finalize the agreement on the Reconstruction Fund.
This means that, according to this consulting company, none of the countries mentioned will suffer serious financial losses as a result of possible violations of the rule of law.
For sanctions to be imposed, a qualified majority vote in the European Council will be required (the proposal must be supported by at least 15 countries representing at least 65 percent of the EU population). The requirement of a qualified majority will significantly hamper the execution of any real penalty in practice.