19:04 14 April 2026
IEA: war in Iran will cause drop in oil demand, first time since 2020
Global oil demand is set to fall this year for the first time since the pandemic, according to the International Energy Agency, as war involving the US, Israel, and Iran drives prices higher and weakens GDP growth. Demand is now expected to decline by 80,000 barrels per day, instead of rising by 730,000.
Supply has also dropped sharply, down 10.1 million barrels per day, or about 9% y/y, due to disruptions in key producers and blocked exports. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 3.8 million barrels daily from around 20 million. Despite price spikes, futures still underestimate the crisis, while physical oil prices and risk premiums surge.
The IEA released 400 million barrels from reserves and may act again. It expects partial recovery later this year but warns prolonged disruption could trigger major global economic impacts, especially for energy-importing countries.
(pb.pl)
